← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Wind AlliesTier 1
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 41.4% | -4.0 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 13 | 6-5-2 | 53.8% | 52.9% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 67.4% | +11.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 44.7% | -2.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |